M.H. Hardman and Son, the Maplewood stockmen, have sold from
their farm over $12,000 worth of cattle this year. It has been a red-letter year
for the firm and we are glad of it.
The real tang of fall is in the air. Everybody is full of the
joy of life. The men who love the whirr of birds, the bark of guns and the
delights of the hunting field are getting ready for the joy that is theirs. If
the game laws of the state were modified enough to allow an ordinary man to go
hunting and stay out of jail, there would be very little lacking to make this
the happiest time of the year.
We are informed by a prominent business man of our town that
negotiations are under way for the establishment of a large tobacco packing
warehouse in Elizabeth. This will be a fine thing for our community, and we are
glad that we will not have to ship our crop to Parkersburg.
This is the season for polls--predicting the winner of the
various elections. In thinking of popularity polls involving candidates, one
automatically recalls 1948, when all polls predicted Thomas E. Dewey would
defeat Harry S Truman.
In 1948, polls were wrong. It seems that the polls succumb to
the fever that sometimes affects delegates and other politicians--the bandwagon
In 1948, some of the polls hedged at the end of the campaign,
claiming that President Truman was coming up fast in the last days. Since that
time, we have noticed that the polls hedge, in similar ways, on many important
Truman did not win the 1948 election by coming up fast in the
last few days--and political polls are not nearly as accurate as some people
assume they are.
A recent test showed that one famous poll had announced results
in a state after contacting less than 100 persons. According to the pollsters,
these 100 represented a typical sampling of public opinion in that state.
This typical sampling cannot possibly be accurate in every case,
since the sentiments of millions of people cannot be judged by a typical sample
of 100. Their typical sample may be right more than half of the time, but it
will be wrong quite often, and the polls are, likewise, wrong quite often.
The lesson for all of us in this election year is that political polls do not
mean too much. If the polls are close, as they are likely to be, they can be
taken with a grain of salt--until the returns are in come November, and actual
results are known.